Multiscale Model Reduction Techniques for Flows in High-contrast Heterogeneous Media and Applications

not available at time of publication. Adam Larios Department of Mathematics UC Irvine [email protected] MS8 Poisson Solvers in Thin Domains Abstract not available at time of publication.not available at time of publication. Alberto Scotti UNC Chapel Hill [email protected] MS9 Quantifying Uncertainty in Wind Power Predictions for Stochastic Unit Commitment Optimization We discuss uncertainty quantification in wind power forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with applications in proactive management of energy systems. Weather is one of the major drivers of energy generation and consumption, especially with the adoption of such renewable resources as wind. Our strategy consists in using numerical dynamical models to forecast ambient conditions and propagate uncertainties from initial conditions to produce accurate confidence intervals. We analyze the impact of assimilating satellite radiance in our forecasts. We present an integrative unit commitment or energy system scheduling problem that uses weather forecasts with uncertainty, and validate our results using real observations. Emil M. Constantinescu Argonne National Laboratory Mathematics and Computer Science Division [email protected] Victor Zavala Argonne National Laboratory [email protected] Mihai Anitescu Argonne National Laboratory Mathematics and Computer Science Division [email protected]